Just two months ago that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
