A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
